如上圖所示，各個主要股票價值佔比波克夏Q1證券投資的比率
- Apple: 135.4B/335.864B=40.31%
- Bank of America: 39.2B/335.864B=11.67%
- American Express: 34.5B/335.864B=10.27%
- Coca-Cola: 24.5B/335.864B=7.29%
- Chevron: 19.4B/335.864B=5.78%
Buffett:『"unless something dramatic happens that really changes capital allocation, we will have Apple as our largest investment."』
各個主要股票價值佔比波克夏Q1總資產的比率
- Apple: 135.4B/1,070B=12.65%
- Bank of America: 39.2B/1,070B=3.66%
- American Express: 34.5B/1,070B=3.22%
- Coca-Cola: 24.5B/1,070B=2.29%
- Chevron: 19.4B/1,070B=1.81%
cash, equivalents, and short-term Treasury Bills: 182.3B/1070B=17.04%
Buffett: 『"I don't mind" expanding the cash stake, in light of alternatives in the equity markets and conflicts around the world』巴菲特還表示6月底波克夏的現金部位有可能會超過200B
#BerkshireHathaway #損益表
波克夏(Berkshire Hathaway)這週末Q1 report的亮點其實在operating profit破新高!!! Q1達到$11.22B vs 去年Q1的$8,065M。
為什麼看波克夏要看operating profit/earnings, 不要看Net income！因為這是巴菲特爺爺特別指導的～ 今年二月他在2023年報說道：『“So sanctified, this worse-than-useless “net income” figure quickly gets transmitted throughout the world via the internet and media. All parties believe they have done their job – and, legally, they have.”』
然後巴爺爺又說『“We, however, are left uncomfortable. At Berkshire, our view is that “earnings” should be a sensible concept that Bertie will find somewhat useful – but only as a starting point – in evaluating a business. Accordingly, Berkshire also reports to Bertie and you what we call “operating earnings.” Here is the story they tell: $27.6 billion for 2021; $30.9 billion for 2022 and $37.4 billion for 2023”.』
但如果你看net earnings這個GAAP的數字，那就是$89.94B for 2021; $-22.76 for 2022; $96.22 for 2023。三年的震盪相當大，看不出一個進步的trend。
為何？因為GAAP earnings包含的是波動性大的未實現資本損益，而operating earnings紀錄的是“沒有”investment gain/loss的經營業務績效。operating earnings的變化不僅沒有GAAP earnings的波動大，還能看出趨勢穩步上升~
之前有提到，Q1波克夏持有335.864B的equity securities, 這是相當大體量的投資組合(Tesla今天的市值也不過585B), 所以即使市場價格的微小百分比變化也會導致波克夏net earnings的大幅波動。如果市場價格變化更大時，這情況就會更加放大~
波克夏股票投資組合的長期表現非常重要，因此短期波動無法在underlying operating businesses的績效提供任何分析價值。
所以巴菲特不希望投資者看波克夏財報時太重視net earnings：巴爺爺甚至說波克夏的unrealized capital gains and losses一天都可能高達$5B的震盪。
因此以後看波克夏的損益表, 不要桎梏在net income了，更重要的是長期追蹤波克夏每個季度的net operating profit/earnings。
最後, Hy整理了2018Q1到2024Q1共25季的operating earnings, 時間跨越Covid-19, 也跨越2020三月以及2022一整年的stock market decline。圖中可看出在巴菲特的管理下，波克夏跨越牛熊的優秀的績效!
以後當你現金太多不知道要放哪裡時，不要只考慮高利息的GIC，也考慮一下Berkshire Hathaway～
#波克夏的OperatingEarnings傳達更多的是商業價值
#波克夏的NetEarnings傳達更多的是股市價格