5/20~5/24這週美國科技股有5間Hy認為很重要的公司要開財報：包括週一: Palo Alto(PANW), 週三: Nvidia(NVDA), Snowflake(SNOW), 週四: Workday(WDAY), Intuit(INTU)。
以下攏長篇幅快速複習一次最近期財報中重要數字，以及數字的環比，同比，和三年複合成長率。
可簡單從這些數字們看出：Rev Year over Year的增速與降速，和利潤率bps的增減，在估值/定價扮演太重要的角色了！在估值的變化中精準入手是不可能，但加減碼的節奏就看個人藝術細胞了～
我在財報前下注了其中幾支有機會跳漲的公司 (但,會跳漲就有機會跳跌)。
#PANW(ended Jan’24)
📌Guided F’24year Rev to $7.95B~8B (15.5%yoy)
📌F’25 P/S=102.7/=12.88x
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Rev.: $1.98B, $1.88B, $1.66B, $1.02B
✏️Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
5.3%, 19.3%, 24.7%
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Billings: $2.35B, $2.02B, $2.03B, $1.21B
✏️Billings: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
16.3%, 15.8%, 24.8%
利潤率方面:
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️EBIT: 28.6%, 28.2%, 22.8%, 19.8%
✏️EBIT: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+60bps, +580bps, +880bps
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Net Income: 25.5%, 24.8%, 20%, 15.2%
✏️Net Income: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+70bps, +550bps, +1030bps
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Net Income(GAAP): 12.5%, 10.3%, 5.1%, -14%
✏️NI (GAAP): QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+220bps, +940bps, +2650bps
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️FCF: 33.2%, 79.3%, 39.7%, 32.7%
✏️FCF: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-4610bps, -650bps, +50bps
#NVDA(ended Jan’24)
📌Estimated F’25year Rev to $112.77B(85%yoy)
📌F’25 P/S=2270/112.77=20.13x
📌Estimated F’25year EPS to $25.27(95%yoy)
📌F’25 P/S=2270/25.27=90x
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Rev.: $22.1B, $18.1B, $6.05B, $5B
✏️Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
22.1%, 265%, 64.1%
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Data Center: $18.4B, $14.5B, $3.62B, $1.9B
✏️DC: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
26.9%, 408%, 113%
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Gaming: $2.87B, $2.86B, $1.83B, $2.5B
✏️Gaming: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
0.3%, 56.8%, 4.7%
利潤率方面:
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Gross Margin(GAAP): 76%, 74%, 63.3%, 65.4%
✏️GM(GAAP): QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+200bps, +1270bps, +1060bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️EBIT(GAAP): 61.6%, 57.4%, 20.8%, 30.1%
✏️EBIT(GAAP): QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+420bps, +4080bps, +3150bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️EBIT: 66.7%, 63.7%, 36.8%, 41.8%
✏️EBIT: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+300bps, +2990bps, +2490bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Net Income: 58.1%, 55.3%, 25.9%, 39.1%
✏️Net Income: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+280bps, +2220bps, +1900bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️FCF: 50.8%, 38.9%, 28.7%, 35.7%
✏️FCF: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+1190bps, +3210bps, +1510bps
#SNOW(ended Jan’24)
📌Guided F’25year Rev to $3,250M(22%yoy)
📌F’25 P/S=54.1/3.25=16.65x
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Rev.: $774.7M, $734.2M, $589M, $190.5M
✏️Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
5.5%, 31.5%, 59.6%
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Product Rev.: $738.1M, $698.5M, $555.3M, $178.3M
✏️Product Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
5.7%, 32.9%, 60.6%
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Remaining Performance: $5.2B, $3.7B, $3.7B, $1.3B
✏️Remaining Performance: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
40.5%, 40.5%, 58.7%
利潤率方面:
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Gross Margin(Product): 78%, 78.3%, 75%, 70.3%
✏️G.M.(Product): QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-30bps, +300bps, +770bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️EBIT: 9.1%, 9.8%, 5.6%, -24.1%
✏️EBIT: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-70bps, +350bps, +3320bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️EBIT(GAAP): -35.5%, -35.5%, -40.7%, -105%
✏️EBIT(GAAP): QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+0bps, +520bps, +6950bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️FCF: 41.9%, 13.9%, 34.9%, 3.8%
✏️FCF: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+2800bps, +700bps, +3810bps
#WDAY(ended Jan’24)
📌Guided F’25 訂閱Rev to $7,725M~7,735M(17%yoy)
📌F’25 P/S=68.43/7.73=8.85x
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Rev.: $1.92B, $1.87B, $1.65B, $1.13B
✏️Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
2.7%, 16.4%, 19.3%
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️訂閱Rev.: $1.76B, $1.69B, $1.5B, $1.01B
✏️訂閱Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
4.1%, 17.3%, 20.3%
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️訂閱Backlog: $20.9B, $18.5B, $16.5B, $10.1B
✏️訂閱Backlog: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
13%, 26.7%, 27.4%
利潤率方面:
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️EBIT: 24%, 24.8%, 18.5%, 18.6%
✏️EBIT: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-80bps, +550bps, +540bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️EBIT(GAAP): 2.5%, 4.7%, -5.4%, -6.5%
✏️EBIT(GAAP): QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-220bps, +790bps, +900bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️Net Income: 21.9%, 21.9%, 15.5%, 4.7%
✏️Net Income: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+0bps, +640bps, +1720bps
FQ4’24, FQ3’24, FQ4’23, FQ4’21
✏️OCF (operating cash flow): 51.9%, 24.2%, 42.1%, 49%
✏️OCF margin: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
+2770bps, +980bps, +290bps
#INTU(ended Jan’24)
📌Guided F’24year Rev to $15.89B~16.105B (11.5%yoy)
📌F’25 P/S=102.7/15.89=6.46x
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Rev.: $3.39B, $2.98B, $3.04B, $1.58B
✏️Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
13.8%, 11.3%, 29%
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Small/Med Bus.(SMB) Rev.: $2.24B, $2.34B, $1.90B, $1.08B
✏️SMB Rev.: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-4.3%, 17.9%, 27.5%
利潤率方面:
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️EBIT: 29.5%, 32.2%, 28.1%, 14.9%
✏️EBIT: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-270bps, +140bps, +1460bps
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Net Income: 20.6%, 23.4%, 15.5%, 15.9%
✏️Net Income: QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-280bps, +510bps, +470bps
FQ2’24, FQ1’24, FQ2’23, FQ2’21
✏️Net Income(GAAP): 7.1%, 8.1%, 1.3%, 12.6%
✏️Net Income(GAAP): QoQ, YoY, 3yr_CARG
-100bps, +580bps, -550bps